risk

• ‘Frankly my dear . . . we need to include Franking Credits in reporting and portfolio planning’ Here’s what they’re worth

   "Franking credits on dividends on Australian shares can add more than 1% per year to returns for Australian shareholders," says Ashley Owen, "but many professionals don’t include the value of franking credits in their clients’ returns – either historical, or forecast".

• Another good financial year for lazy investors! How did your returns stack up?

  Ashley Owen examines returns from the main asset classes & sectors for Aussie investors for the past two June financial/tax years, & his graphs show key data including inflation, exchange rates, commodities prices, & house prices.

• Ashley Owen analyses 2024-2025: a year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios

  "2024-2025 was the third straight year of solid double-digit returns for diversified ‘passive’ ETF investors and a standard 70/30 (‘balanced’) fund or ETF portfolio should have returned near 12% after fees. Did yours?" asks Ashley Owen

• Australia -vs- rest of the world on Inflation & Interest rates

  "The RBA is lagging has more work to do! In Sept 23 quarterly inflation rose from 0.8% to 1.2%, but cash rate's been sitting at 4.1% since June 23, after 12 rate hikes. Is the RBA doing enough? " asks Ashley Owen,

• Australia’s bounty – 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot? Will our commodities bounty run out one day?

  "Commodities matter! Raw commodities exports made, and continue to make, Australia the richest country per capita on earth. More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners." says Ashley Owen

• Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0 – Part 1: Growth picture

  Ashley Owen says the ‘big picture’ has changed for long term investors and looks at some big changes in the world since Trump's re-election that impact investors everywhere.

• CBA in 7 charts – the ‘Steven Bradbury’ of Australian banking – suddenly a ‘growth stock’?

  Ashley Owen examines why CBA has been in the headlines of late for a few reasons – for re-taking the lead from BHP to be the largest ASX-listed company by market value, for being the most over-priced bank in the world, and also for having the most mysterious share price surge this year.

• Getting the benefits of real assets for retail investors - IMAP Independent Thought

  How necessary are real assets and private equity as a component of portfolios for retail investors, and how can they access these assets? This was one of the questions considered by Dale Holmes (Spire Capital), Robert Talevski (Activus Investment Advisors), and Tom Schubert (Drummond Capital Partners)

   

• Has inflation peaked? - IMAP Independent Thought

  Inflation underpins every asset class. But have we seen the peak of inflation? Jay Sivapalan (Janus Henderson), Hugh Dive (Atlas Funds Management), Kieran Rooney (Evergreen Consultants), and Chamath De Silva (BetaShares) discuss the implications of inflation on portfolio construction and asset allocation.t.

   

• Have we seen the end of globalisation? - IMAP Independent Thought

  A war in Ukraine, rising tensions over China, and political events worldwide have caused a sharp jump in risk levels for financial markets. Jonathon Costello (Western Asset), Chris Carrodus (Evidentia), David Berthon-Jones (Aequitas), Matthew Swieconek (Findex), and Brett Sanders (Philo Capital Advisers) discuss these rising risks when constructing portfolios.

   

• How to deal with increasingly volatile markets - IMAP Independent Thought

  When talking about risk, it’s generally referred to in relation to volatility and the potential for capital loss. Raf Choudhury (abrdn), William Higgins (DFS Portfolio Solutions), Glen Foster (Atrium), and Victor Huang (Milliman) discuss their approach to risk and how they deal with portfolio construction in an increasingly volatile environment.

   

• Last time we had an inflation-busting rate-hike recession – shares surged! This Time is Different - or is it?

  "Nothing scares investors more than news of a ‘recession!’ But why? Recessions have mostly been good for Australian shares!" says Ashley Owen, "Contrary to the popular myth that recessions are bad for share markets, in the vast majority of economic ‘recessions’ in Australia over the past 150 years, the local share market has actually risen! "

• Market Monitor - end June 2023

  Ashley Owen's Market Monitor - a quick snapshot of key events affecting investors and investment markets, especially from an Australian perspective

• Market Monitor – 2024: Great returns from almost all asset classes despite constant recession fear

  "Despite continual tiresome warnings of a USA-led global recession from economists & market ‘experts’, plus a host of other threats - almost all of the main asset classes did well in 2024, beating inflation, & most did better than their long-term averages." says Ashley Owen

• Market Monitor – April 2024 snapshot – shares fall as rate cut hopes finally dashed – is this the ‘Big one?

  Ashley Owen provides his essential 1 page 30th April snapshot for Aussie investors – covering what happened and why?? with the Australian & US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD/USD exchange rate!

• Market Monitor – end August 2023: 'Sticky inflation' + 'What’s keeping the AUD down'

  "It's a confused picture this month with share markets lower across the board from profit taking, interest rate hikes slowing, inflation receding, central bankers warnings,and bond yields flat in most markets", says Ashley Owen

• Market Monitor – end July 2023: ‘Are you feeling lucky?’

  "Share markets are surging back toward their 2021 covid stimulus tech-bubble peaks! After a dozen rate hikes, inflation is easing, rate hikes are slowing, jobs & wages remain strong. What’s not to like? "says Ashley Owen

• Market Monitor – March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging

  Ashley Owen provides his essential March 20241-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD/USD exchange rate.

• Market Monitor – Nov 2023 Australian share market has gone nowhere for 16 years? Is it ‘broken’? Has it lost its mojo?

  "The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why?
  Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? " questions Ashley Owen

• Market Monitor – October 2023 wrap-up: Central banks not done yet with rate hikes, military tensions rise

  "Welcome to the Monthly Market Monitor for October 2023. First, here is our quick snapshot of Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD since the start of 2020" explains Ashley Owen